Pass Distribution Chart for 2024

There are many iconic quotes that warn about the dangers of repeating history. One of my personal faves is a lyric from George Harrison’s While My Guitar Gently Weeps who sang, “With every mistake we must surely be learning.”

Since we don’t want to make the same draft mistakes, can we learn anything from how passes were distributed in the NFL last year?

Attached is the pass distribution chart from the 2023 season.

Each team’s percentages are based solely on that team’s passing attempts, not based on the NFL as a whole.

While this may raise an eyebrow, a great example of why it shouldn’t matter is because San Francisco had the least passing attempts (491) compared to Washington who had the most (636). Which just goes to show that this is about quality, not quantity.

HIGHS AND LOWS

If I were to ask which NFL team threw the highest percentage of passes to the RB position, would you have guessed Denver? It’s true! A full 7% more than the next-highest team, the 49ers.

On the other end of the chart was Dallas who threw the least percentage of passes to the RB position. (I’m guessing that Tony Pollard owners are doing some serious teeth grinding as they read that.)

We know KC likes their TE. But apparently not as equally as 5 other clubs who distributed a higher ratio of passes to their TE. (KC was 6 behind BAL, ATL, ARI, MIN and JAX.)

On the other end of the TE spectrum are the Dolphins with a league low 9.19%. Perhaps prompting some fantasy owners to ask, why even have a Miami TE? Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle accounted for half (275) of the 549 targets. If that trend continues, where will the other half (274) go in 2024?

In the WR category, Tampa (66.02%) and the Rams (65.69%) threw to their WR the most. At the other end we find the reigning Super Bowl back-to-back champion Chiefs who threw a paltry 46.93% to their WR. If fantasy owners did own a KC WR, he was either desperate for a WR, or he was riding the bench on the days he went off.

As for NFL averages, the average targets among the RB were 17%. TE averaged 21% and the WR averaged 57%.

NOTABLE COACHING CHANGES

With the highs and lows out of the way, let’s spin the Beatles’ While My Guitar Gently Weeps and compare some numbers for the coordinators who may have changed teams or have moved on to see if we can avoid some mistakes as fantasy managers.

ATLANTA – new head coach is defensive-minded Raheem Morris. He brought it fellow Rams passing game coordinator Zac Robinson as his OC. The addition of QB Kurt Cousins would suggest that Robinson, like his mentor McVay, will opt to throw more downfield. It’s a safe bet that WR Drake London’s targets get a bump.  One concern might be, what will happen to TE Kyle Pitts’ targets?

CHICAGO hired OC Shane Waldron from Seattle. With as little as the old Bears’ regime threw to the WR position, D.J. Moore had career highs in both yards and TD. Adding Keenan Allen is another indicator the Bears plan to throw more to the WR position. Also to Waldron’s credit, it can be argued that he did not have elite QB talent to develop (i.e. Geno Smith), yet his Seattle offenses were productive, which is noteworthy regardless of who Chicago’s 2024 QB will be.

CLEVELAND hired ex-Bills OC Ken Dorsey who was fired mid-season by Buffalo. Arguably, Dorsey’s firing was not about production but about wins-losses. In 2 seasons as the Bills’ OC, Dorsey’s offense was top-5 in yardage. I like the Browns skill positions in comparison to the Bills. The (guaranteed) million-dollar question rests with Deshaun Watson’s shoulder rehab and whether his legal battles are finally off the table.

The CHARGERS landed head coach Jim Harbaugh who went out and hired his former SF of 4 years, OC Greg Roman. This Harbaugh-Roman reunion may expect an optimistic bump in the offensive numbers from many. However, it should be noted that Roman’s offense was top-10 in both rushing attempts and yards, yet only bottom-3 in passing attempts and receiving yards ranking. What does this mean for QB Justin Hebert is the 1.21 gigawatt question for the Bolts.

LAS VEGAS hired former Bears OC Luke Getsy. Vegas has a nice set of WR led by the elite Davante Adams. Is QB Aidan O’Connell the answer? Can he be developed? At first glance, it does seem like QB Justin Fields regressed under Getsy’s tutelage. Was the problem Fields or was it Getsy? Raiders fans are about to find out. In the Gambling Capital of the World, this may be a situation fantasy manager don’t want to gamble on.

NEW ENGLAND – It’s been nearly a quarter of a century since the Patriots hired a new coach. Welcome former Pat and new HC Jared Mayo. He hired former Bills QB/former Browns OC Alex Van Pelt as the Pats’ OC. Van Pelt’s offenses have moved the chains but statistically have been nothing more than NFL-average, coming off his best season in 2023, ranking in the top half of the league in yards (16) and points scored (10). The arguable lack of blue-chip caliber players on New England could also derail the new regime’s revolutionary efforts on offense.

PHILADELPHIA hired former Chargers OC Kellen Moore in his only season with the Bolts. Prior to L.A., Moore held the same OC title in Dallas under Mike McCarthy and Jason Garrett for 4 years. Distribution numbers are fairly close so I do not see a drastic change in ball distribution or offensive scheme.

PITTSBURGH – In the aftermath of the Falcons rebuild, the Steelers hired former Falcons HC Arthur Smith as their OC. Smith is a run-first type of coach, but as you compare the distribution numbers from Atlanta, it may indicate that RBs Najee Harris or Jaylen Warren may not see many PPR numbers. But the comparison could mean that TE Pat Freiermuth may be a steal if Smith sticks to a similar Falcons distribution philosophy.

SEATTLE replaced the gum-chewing Pete Carroll with defensive-minded HC Mike MacDonald formerly of the Ravens. MacDonald then looked within the state and hired Washington Huskies’ Ryan Grubb as OC. (As in the National Champion runner-up Huskies.) Maybe it’s just me, but the college-to-pros coaching transition is generally a bumpy one. Grubb’s only advantage is that he is not the head coach here. But can he keep the rejuvenated Geno Smith momentum going? Will he have a healthy RB corps? This could get “grungy.”

TAMPA BAY hired former Kentucky Wildcats OC Liam Coen. Umm. What did I just type about the college-to-pros coaching transition being a bumpy one? Coen does have very good players at the skill position. The resigning of Baker Mayfield brings stability. That said, a change in offensive philosophy could get grungy “stormy” in the Gulf.

TENNESSEE cleaned house and hired former Bengals OC Brian Callahan. He then hired the Jaguars passing game coordinator Nick Holz as OC. Is it a stretch to say this will be Callahan’s offense? Comparing the numbers, the Titans’ RB may lose some PPR targets. But it looks like the WR room of DeAndre Hopkins and newly acquired Calvin Ridley will get a titanic bump in targets. Assuming, of course, that their QB Will Levis stays healthy and improves in his development.

WASHINGTON – We wrap up with the Commanders who hired Dan Quinn as OC. He in turn hired former USC coach Kliff Kingsbury as his OC. This is Kingsbury’s second stint in the NFL after an inaugural bumpy run with the Arizona Cardinals. (2019-22) Kingsbury’s previous distribution numbers for his seasons in Arizona did reveal higher WR percentages well into the 60% range. Notably he also had the sure-handed Larry Fitzgerald and DeAndre Hopkins on the roster. The favorite WR1 in D.C. could be a nice find for 2024. Not sure what to make of the addition of RB Austin Ekeler who will be age 30 when the season begins?