2023 Fantasy Strength of Schedule (FSOS)

I know what you’re thinking. Strength of Schedule (or SOS) is not a reliable gauge for fantasy defenses. And I agree. Wins and losses of SOS have no scoring relevance in fantasy football.

Fantasy awards points for things such as yards allowed, points allowed, sacks and turnovers. These are the statistical measurements that go in the Fantasy Strength of Schedule (or FSOS) chart.

Each of these offensive categories are ranked for each NFL team. Then each of these rankings is averaged, then applied to the first 14 games for each of the 32 NFL fantasy DSTs. (The first 14 games represent a typical fantasy regular season.)

Put another way, the DST at the top of the chart (green) faceoff against offenses that already have trouble moving the ball, holding onto the ball, and scoring points. The DST at the bottom of the chart (red) are going against offensive juggernauts.

For example, Denver, Cincinnati and Philadelphia meet up against some of the better offenses. Conversely, Detroit, Seattle, Jacksonville and the Jets face some of the weakest offenses.

Skeptical? I have been running this ranking system for several years now and more NFL playoff teams consistently emerge from the top of the rankings than from the bottom.

Still skeptical? In 2022 the Saints were a top 5 DST in redraft leagues. Yet they had the 7th-worst FSOS. Was anyone still holding onto the Saints DST by the end of 2022? On the other side of the chart were the Jaguars DST who went largely undrafted. Yet they had the best DST matchup of all 32 teams. The Jaguars finished as a top-10 DST (depending on your league scoring rules). Plus they made the NFL playoffs. The Jags have a similarly favorable DST schedule for 2023 and are once again being largely avoided in redrafts.

For 2023 the Eagles are a favorite DST being drafted. Yet their FSOS has them facing the 4th-toughest offenses. In contrast the Seahawks DST square off against the 5th-easiest offenses and, like the Jaguars, are largely being avoided in redraft leagues.

I should point out that fantasy owners need to weigh other factors. Houston for example has the easiest DST schedule. But the Texans also had one of the worst offenses. A struggling offense does not help their DST stay fresh and effective for an entire game. Fantasy owners need to look for teams with a balanced offense that will control the time of possession to help the DST.